For the past year, bitcoin has shown a cyclicality that has been on a semi-regular basis. For most of last year, most months had finished in the positive with green candles dominating the market. However, while most of the months have been positive, there have been significant differences between the first half of the month and the second half. This push and pull pattern has continued into the new year, spelling some bad news for the end of February. Looking At Monthly Cyclicality Through 2021 Eight months out of the last 14 months have been recording positive returns mid-month. Across these eight months, the returns have not carried on to the end of the month for five months, leaving only three months that saw positive mid-month to end-month returns. Most of bitcoin’s gains have been recorded occurring in the first half of the month, while the second half usually suffered losses. Related Reading | False Safe Haven: Bitcoin Correlation With S&P 500 Hits ATH These periods of gains and losses usually coincide with the CME future expires which usually occur mid-month. And from mid-month to the next expiry date, the pattern usually plays out as illustrated in the chart below. BTC monthly cyclicality shows interesting pattern | Source: Arcane Research Following this pattern for the past year would put a trader in significant profit over the past year. That is if they purchased the digital assets when the CME futures w...
