Seeking Alpha
2022-07-19 15:13:47

MicroStrategy: Drastic Correction Imminent

A friendly reminder that MSTR will be reporting FQ2'22 earnings approximately on 04 August 2022.It might be another earning call miss, given the destructive effects of the crypto winter and the CEO's doubling down on Bitcoin.MSTR fundamentally is not a highly profitable business with minimal revenue growth.With $2.3B of debt, MSTR may pledge or sell unencumbered Bitcoin, otherwise additional debt or share dilution would follow.Investors, get out while you can. Sell, sell, and sell.Investment ThesisMicroStrategy (MSTR) has long been linked to Bitcoin (BTC-USD), since its CEO took an aggressive position with the king of cryptocurrency in 2020. By FQ1'22, MSTR owned 129.2K Bitcoins with a total market value of $5.9B and YTD, 129.69K Bitcoins. Therefore, it is not a coincidence that MSTR's price chart looks awfully similar to BTC-USD's, especially given the recent notorious crypto winter that occurred recently. 5Y Correlation Between MSTR and BTC-USD's PricesSeeking AlphaSince the historical crypto winter in 2018 lasted for two years, we expect another cyclical behavior this time round as well. In addition, MSTR's stock decline is also partially attributed to its poorer financial performance in the past four consecutive quarters, significantly worsened by the macro issues, rising inflation, and potential recession. Therefore, we are not hopeful for stock price recovery in the short term and intermediate term.MSTR's Financial Perfo...

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