Seeking Alpha
2022-10-12 14:26:49

ETHE: Discount To NAV Likely To Expand

SummaryEthereum successfully completing the merge is likely a bullish event long term as ETH supply growth slows and ESG-related issues vanish.While this event was good for Ethereum, it creates further issues with ETHE, as assets held in it are not being staked and earning yield.With no liquid options market or staking yield, the relative underperformance of ETHE is likely to continue, in my opinion, creating a 40% discount to NAV over the next 5-6 months.While ETHE may be a buy or hold in isolation, in comparison to Ether Futures or spot Ethereum, it has major issues and should be avoided.Without sweeping crypto-regulations, and likely a change in the SEC commissioner, it's unlikely ETHE gets converted to an ETF anytime in the next few years - making ETHE quite unattractive in comparison to futures or spot Ethereum.Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) is a fine way to gain exposure to Ethereum at a discount. However, many people wrongly assume that the discount to NAV ETHE provides, currently -30.9%, is 'free money.'This is simply not the case.In this article, I'll present my case for going with either spot Ethereum or Ether futures instead of Grayscale Ethereum Trust, and for ETHE declining to at least a discount of -40% to the fund's NAV.We'll start by painting a picture of ETHE's decreasing attractiveness relative to alternatives before revisiting the likelihood of ETHE becoming an ETF.Data by YChartsTo brief anyone who's not f...

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