Technical analysis is not perfect - but it's right more than it's wrong.I estimate ETH has a 70% chance of dropping by 80%.Confluence of factors point to this (RSI / price divergence, more than 68% retracement, rising volume on price drop, resistance levels).Ethereum (ETH-USD), for the uninitiated, is the second-most important of the crypto currencies, Second only to Bitcoin (BTC-USD) by market value and role, Ethereum is the main currency dominating the $100 billion industry of Decentralized Finance (see CoinDesk). Before I launch into my technical analysis, the reader may want to know my biases: I confess I'm one of the Kool-Aid drinkers who believe that cryptos will be at the foundation of our economic system a decade or so from now. I believe that Bitcoin will function as the future hard-currency savings instrument (similar to Gold until now), while ETH will largely play the role the dollar does today. It will be the preferred currency for international transactions. Over the next decade, I have not doubt that both Bitcoin and Ethereum will flourish and be worth 20 to 50 times their current prices. So I guess you could call me a crypto bull or - less generously - a crypto fool. Despite that, I exited all but a small portion of my crypto holdings last January. I thought the Fed's changing stance on inflation would cause a market rout where all assets would drop. Crypto assets, having been priced in a market of real negative...
